Thesis Code: T10

Improving energy system modelling in the African continent under different climate policy scenarios

Short description:

Due to the increasing energy access [1] and population growth [2], electricity demand has grown in many areas of the world, particularly in Africa, which is struggling to solve urgent problems, most importantly the effects of climate change, together with the extreme poverty and a high number of people affected by food crises.

At the same time, many countries are committing to aggressive cuts in carbon dioxide emissions and allocating a significant share of new investments to renewable energy sources and low-carbon fuels [3]. 

To plan sustainable energy transitions that meet future energy demand, the energy system modeling community uses energy systems models that solve cost-optimal trajectories of capacity expansion for different technologies in the long term. Cost-optimal trajectories that meet low emission targets to limit global warming generally specify significant expansion of non-dispatchable variable renewable energy resources (VRES) like solar and wind power.

Power generation from renewable energy sources has increased at an average annual rate of 2.0% from 1990, diversifying the electricity generation portfolio in the latest power systems [4]. Reducing fossil fuel reliance requires low-carbon energy solutions that also ensure affordable, reliable, and universal access to sustainable and modern energy services, as stated in Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) adopted by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA).

However, energy system models are not resolved enough to account for power grid reliability under high penetration of VRES, where flexible operations and power grid reliability are crucial [5].  High penetration of VRES requires adjusting power operation decisions with a high temporal resolution to cope with highly intermittent power output over multiple time scales. Without such grid flexibility, both excess and deficit power supply would occur [6], highlighting the importance of modeling high-resolution power operations to ensure system reliability. 

By discarding information at a higher time resolution, relevant detail regarding renewables integration is lost, especially when considering non-dispatchable wind and solar in combination with dispatchable reservoir hydropower. Overlooking the potential of these operational schemes precludes the development of sustainable energy pathways in regions with high hydropower capacity. Furthermore, these operational alternatives might have lower social and environmental impact than building new reservoirs in regions where hydropower potential remains. 

The aim of the thesis is to refine the characterization of availability patterns for renewable resources within energy system models analyzing various climate policy scenarios in the African continent. The thesis will place a particular focus on hydropower availability, the primary renewable resource in the African continent.

References

  1. Dalla Longa, F. and van der Zwaan, B., 2021. Heart of light: an assessment of enhanced electricity access in Africa. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 136, p.110399. 
  2. Samir, K.C. and Lutz, W., 2017. The human core of the shared socioeconomic pathways: Population scenarios by age, sex and level of education for all countries to 2100. Global Environmental Change, 42, pp.181-192. 
  3. IEA. World energy outlook special report africa energy outlook 2022, 2022. URL www. iea.org/t&c/. 
  4. S. Cantillo and R. Moreno. Power system operation considering detailed modelling of energy storage systems. International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering, 11:182–200, 2 2021. ISSN 20888708. doi: 10.11591/ijece.v11i1.pp182-200. 
  5. A. F. Chowdhury, J. Kern, T. D. Dang, and S. Galelli. Pownet: A network-constrained unit commitment/economic dispatch model for large-scale power systems analysis. Journal of Open Research Software, 8, 2020a. ISSN 20499647. doi: 10.5334/JORS.302. 
  6. H. K. Ringkjøb, P. M. Haugan, and I. M. Solbrekke. A review of modelling tools for energy and electricity systems with large shares of variable renewables, 11 2018. ISSN 18790690. 

Relevant courses and knowledge:

Natural Resources Management / Advanced Environmental System Analysis / Thermoeconomics and energy modeling / engineering and cooperation for development/ energy and climate change modeling and scenarios

Number of students:

1

Requisites:

The student should be comfortable with data handling and programming skills (preferably Python, Matlab).